This is a two-year research project funded by the AHRC that aims to show that probabilistic modes of analysis that are commonly used to manage uncertainty about the future can also be used by historians to manage uncertainty about the past. Our imperfect knowledge about, for example, the population of the Roman empire in 100 CE can usefully be represented as a probability distribution over possible values. The project is an AHRC Leadership Fellowship for Dr Myles Lavan, which is providing two years of research leave to write a series of articles illustrating the approach, and also funding a series of workshops to bring together a network of pioneering ancient historians who are using probabilistic methods to address new and old problems in ancient history.

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Read the latest updates from Myles Lavan and other researchers