Felix K. Maier: Narrating the ‘Swarm of Possibilities’ — The Historian’s Challenge of Dealing with Contingency

Every reader expects a historian to come up with reasons why a certain event happened. No one wants to be told by him that everything was accidental or that no reason can be found for an event. As a consequence, history appears to be somewhat determined, since piling up reasons evokes the impression of a past that followed a pattern of necessity. Thus, a historian often runs the risk of unintentionally leaving out possible alternatives, which could have happened alike, but which did not come about.

In my study, I would like to draw upon Plutarch’s biographies and show that he made use of some subtle techniques to avoid that his text seemed to tell a determined past.

At first glance, Plutarch’s accounts curiously seem to describe a determined past. But even if he sometimes seems to believe in a world in which everything happens according to the plan of a destiny that governs all human actions (tykhe), it would be unwise to assume that this really represents his idea of history. Instead, we should pay more attention to his narrative which again and again points to alternative directions which history did not choose, but which it could have chosen just as well. That he was seriously convinced of the likelihood and the high probability of his presented alternatives becomes obvious by the large investment he spent to hint at different outcomes. E.g. Plutarch makes frequent use of counterfactual remarks, he underlines the complex interaction of his protagonists which leads to unforeseeable and contingent results, and he emphasizes that even people from ,the bottom’ of history can significantly shape and alter the course of events.

It is obvious that Plutarch borrows from some literary techniques which have been established by Polybius in his Histories. By doing this, Plutarch’s biographies do not follow a predestined path leading inevitably towards success, failure or a tragic death. Plutarch sharpens our awareness for the contingency of every life he describes. We are confronted not only with what really happened, but also with a swarm of possibilities whose exact consequences are left to our imagination.